Stossel: My political advice for 2016? Place your bets

Patrick Leahy and Orrin Hatch complained the Hollywood stock exchange would lead to “speculation that is even more risky than the typical financial product.”

That’s dumb, because nothing is better at predicting the future. Click here for more information on John Stossel.

Sadly, Hillary Clinton is a 95 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination and has a 55 percent chance of becoming our next president. It’s not even close.”

Want to know who the next president will be?

People think about food, sex, money, friends, jobs, success, family, health, religion, sports, fashion, video games, money, sex, food (I know I repeated those last three, but that’s where most people’s heads are). European prediction markets are good at predicting Oscar winners, weather disasters, even “American Idol” winners. … Sens. Newspapers ran headlines like “Betting Odds on Roosevelt Rise to 7 to 1.”

Unfortunately, American politicians banned political prediction markets, with a few exceptions, like PredictIt.com. Ron Wyden and Byron Dorgan held a news conference to say “encouraging people to bet on and make money from atrocities … University of North Carolina researchers found that from 1868 to 1940, prediction markets “did a remarkable job forecasting elections.” More than $100 million was bet, sometimes exceeding the value of shares changing hands on Wall Street. If Trump wins, everyone who owns that share gets $1. Ted Cruz comes in second. Presidential nominees are not yet taking up space in most people’s minds.

It was.

Economist Robin Hanson says, “All our familiar financial institutions were once banned as illegal gambling. Likewise, bettors anticipated the Obama victory that many polls and pundits missed.

Pundits have a terrible track record.

Right now, bettors know that Trump, even though he is ahead in polls, is unlikely to be the nominee. needs to be stopped immediately.”

The odds on the big unrestricted market in England, Betfair.com, are much more informative. Stock markets, commodity markets, insurance was banned.”

Polls are better, but not much. Most Americans don’t.

When a polling company reaches the rare person willing to talk to a stranger on the phone, chances are that person is not well-informed about politics. That’s because you are not normal. They’re not perfect, of course, but they’re better than everything else.

Think the odds are wrong? Put your money where your mouth is! You could win money.

Don’t trust polls or pundits. But so what? In a free country, adults ought to be allowed to speculate.

Polls reveal only a snapshot of current opinion. Betting odds at ElectionBettingOdds.com are the best predictor of who will win any election.

It might. You think a lot about politics. Trump and Jeb Bush are third and fourth.

A few years later, politicians killed a prediction market that would merely have let people bet on the success of Hollywood films. As I write, a share of Donald Trump winning the GOP nomination effectively costs 23 cents. “Who do I support for the nomination? Uh, who’s running? I’m embarrassed! Oh, yes, Donald Trump!”

Despite bettors’ good track record, few people know about the odds or how they’re created. Betfair posts those odds in arcane gambling formulas, so producer Maxim Lott and I created the website ElectionBettingOdds.com. In 2011, Rick Perry led the polls for the GOP nomination with Trump-like 31 percent support. Marco Rubio is the favorite. But when it was publicized, outraged Sens. By October, Herman Cain was ahead. Last election, Newt Gingrich and Dick Morris forecast a Romney “landslide.” Rush Limbaugh said, “All my thinking says Romney big. It shows the odds more clearly m88 and will automatically update them every five minutes.

John Stossel is the author of “No They Can’t! Why Government Fails — But Individuals Succeed.”  Stossel appears regularly on Fox News Channel and Fox Business Network providing signature analysis. But candidates’ odds are somewhat off on that site because bettors may not trade more than $850 per candidate.

But people who bet knew better. They picked Romney. Here’s how: computers average bets made on “prediction markets,” where traders buy and sell shares — like stocks — on each candidate. By December, Newt Gingrich.

That’s why the Department of Defense once asked Hanson to create a market to predict things like wars and terrorism. That implies Trump has a 23 percent chance of winning the nomination.

Fortunately, American politicians don’t control the entire world, so I offer you the most accurate presidential race odds: ElectionBettingOdds.com.         

But the markets disappeared because America’s elites don’t like the idea of ordinary folks betting on important events.

. Yikes!

Prediction markets have a long track record. Since you read this column, you are different from most voters

check it out

Aimee Atkinson

Aimee Atkinson

Sports betting tutorials should also explain how the different odds relate to each other and that there is no financial benefit to be made from using one style of odds over another.
Aimee Atkinson

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